Friday, September 29, 2006

Change of Email Address

I've decided to ditch this email address:
X
I'm a switchin' completely to Gmail, which gives me more than 2.5Gb of space, and better spam-handling capabilities.

The old address will continue to work for a while. But, instead please use the last bit of the above (minus .com of course) at Gmail.com.

If in doubt, use the Contact Us page.

Friday, September 22, 2006

v0.8.1 Available

Go get it. And buy it. And give me some feedback.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

v0.8.1 - Holidays

... will be out tomorrow. I just have to do a test install on a different computer before I make it available.

The Change Log has already been updated. As have the Known Bugs. And the Road Map.

Holidays can be attached to your Trading Systems and/or Alerts. They make sure that no auto-trading or alerting is done during times you have specified.

Holidays can be defined as between particular dates (e.g. 1:03AM 21-Sep-06 to 2:55:06PM 22-Sep-06); for days of the week (e.g. 1:03AM Thursdays to 2:55:06PM Fridays); or for days of the month (e.g. 1:03AM every 2nd Thursday to 2:55:06PM every 3rd Friday).

It can also download the Forex Factory Calendar, and automatically create holidays from those calendar events. You decide which level of Forex Factory events (high impact/medium impact/low impact) creates Holidays.

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I've outlined in the Road Map exactly what's going to be done in future releases. There's only candlestick-based rules and Morley's position-sizing technique that are new functionality, with the other changes being bug fixes. And there aren't many bug fixes.

So... if you were waiting for v1.0 to come around, I don't see the harm in jumping in now at the cheaper price. But please read the Known Bugs page before doing so.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Why Is USD Sometimes First, Sometimes Second?

This might sound a bit weird, but I had a job interview, and one of the questions was this:

"In the currency pairs, why does USD sometimes come first (e.g. USDJPY), and sometimes it comes second (e.g. EURUSD)?"

This may well have been one of those questions that does not have a correct answer. It was one of those type of interviews.

Well, I think I found an answer, thanks to the magic of the Internet and the helpful people that reply to questions posted in forums.

I think this tradingmarkets.com page answers the question nicely:
In most cases, USD is the base currency, with the other currency in question being the quote currency. USD/JPY is an example.

There are a few exceptions, though. When it was introduced in 1999, the market authorities decided the Euro would always be the base currency in all traded pairs. Before that, the Pound (GBP) held that distinction. Thus, when traded against either of those, the USD is the quote currency (EUR/USD, GBP/USD). The same also holds for former British Commonwealth currencies the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD).

So, Mr.Interviewer, if you happen to read this blog entry, there's your answer. Please give me the job :-)

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Morley Has Moved

There's this guy who's an idol of mine. I've never met him, and we've only exchanged cursory emails. He has an automated-trading bot running and producing very, very good results.

Anyway, his link changed to:
www.futurestech.com.au

While he doesn't give his techniques away, there is a lot of information to be gleaned from his website.

For starters, he's profitable. His software runs without human interaction of any kind. That means automated trading software based on technical analysis can work.

If ever you read a comment somewhere to the contrary, he is the proof that it's possible.

Secondly, he has about 11 different trading systems running. Not 1 or 2. Most likely they take advantage of different aspects of the market. Most likely some work well during trading ranges, and others work well in a trending market.

Each of those 11 must be individually profitable, and he dumps those that consistently don't perform.

Thirdly, he gives away for free a bunch of detail about the stuff that's ancillary to buying and selling rules. That's his Thoughts page.

Most importantly, please read the Trade Size section of that page. He gives a very simple and mechanical way to feed the winners and starve the losers.

Now to just unravel the secrets of the techniques he uses... :-)

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Oanda API Monthly Fee - $400, not $600 or $200

I had on my website that the Oanda API monthly fee should never be more than $200, even if you didn't do any trading for that month. "Ask me how" I said. So somebody asked me how, and I set about doing the exact math to be sure I didn't look like a complete idiot.

Well, it's not $200, it's $400. But it's still not $600, so I'm not a complete idiot, just a partial one :-) *whew, lucky*

Here's what I wrote to that guy:

Firstly, there is no getting around the upfront payment of $600. That buys you 2 months of use, the theory being that you are supposed to use those 2 months to finish off your code and test your software.

Then, after the first 2 months, there is the monthly payment of $600. This is what can be brought down to a maximum of around $400. My website said $200, and that was from a misunderstanding I had. Writing this email forced me to do the figures exactly, so I'm glad you asked.

Also let me say that this strategy is plucked from threads in the Oanda forum, with a guy by the tag of "dgcfx" having been given the credit there.

Now, the monthly fee is discounted by $50 for every US$1 million worth of trades. So, if you buy and sell US$12 million of currency within the month, the API use is free for that month.

My understanding is that one complete trade, both an opening of a position and a closing, a buy and a sell, is considered twice for the volume calculation. Buy $100,000 of USD, then sell $100,000 of USD, and that adds up to $200,000 units of USD for the purposes of the API fee.

So let's take the worst case - that you didn't trade at all during that month. The fee would be the full $600.

Just before the month ends, you work out how much more currency you need to buy in order to build it up to $12 million worth. In the case that you didn't trade at all, obviously you need to buy and sell the full $12 million.

And this is how to get the monthly fee down to around $400 - you buy and sell and buy and sell currency until you reach $12 million worth. So instead of paying the $600 fee, you pay whatever the spread cost you in those trades.

If you have enough money (unlikely for little guys like me), you can buy and sell $12 million in one go. If not, you buy and sell $100,000 of USD 60 times. Or $200,000 worth of USD 30 times. Or whatever.

Let's do the calculations with EURUSD.

At the time of writing, EURUSD ask was 1.2810, with a spread of 1.5 pips.

We want the contract value to be US$6 million or more, so divide 6,000,000 by 1.2810 to see how much EURUSD we need to purchase. 4,683,841 EURUSD.

EURUSD is always US$10/pip for 1 contract (100,000 units), so it would be US$468.38 for 4,683,841 units.

And because the spread is 1.5 pips, the total spread cost using EURUSD would be $702.57. No good.


Now let's try EURDKK.

The thing about EURDKK is that EUR and DKK are highly correlated, so EURDKK hardly moves, so you have little risk of the price moving a great deal (or at all) in between the buying and the selling.

Further, the interest payment is minimal (measured in parts of a cent), even on such large amounts.

At time of writing, EURDKK ask was 7.4604, with a spread of 5 pips.
And USDDKK was 5.8206.

We want the contract value to be US$6 million or more, so multiply 6,000,000 by 5.8206 to see how much DKK we need to purchase. 34,923,600 DKK gets us USD$6m.

And divide 34,923,600 DKK by 7.4604 to see how many units of EURDKK that equates to. 4,681,196 EURDKK.

At these prices, with the spread at 5 pips, and with that much EURDKK, the total cost of the spread is USD$402.58.

I won't go into how I calculated the cost of the spread in this case, but rest assured I confirmed it by placing this trade in my Oanda game account. (Actually I used a third of the volume, and it cost me $134. $134 times 3 = $402).

The original post in the Oanda forums had it costing around $300, but there were posts later on that mentioned Oanda had made the EURDKK spread wider since then, thereby making this tactic more expensive than before.

Remember, $400 is the maximum amount to pay if you didn't do any trades at all for that month. If you use automated trading software, you should theoretically be able to do quite a lot of trading.


I hope that's answered your question. I'm really sorry about not being correct with $200.

Friday, September 01, 2006

v0.8.0 - Alerts, Charts

Alerts are done. And so are charts. In fact, I don't really want to think about charts ever again. You can see in the Change Log how many chart-related things I changed.

Although it's not up yet, the price for Alerts will be US$20/month. But... I'll give anyone who has or who does sign up for Backtesting 6 months of free Alerts.

You can read this post of mine to see how my Alerts are different to all the other companies which offer them.

See the full list of changes in v0.8.0 (and there are many) in the Change Log.

What you want to do now is go and download it. Note the known bugs. And then go and purchase.