Thinking Stuff Update 19-Dec-05

Was doing reeeeally well with getting through tasks to complete the software. And then I came across this task: "Code to use Gain Capital's API". Pretty important task that one, many little subtasks, and the way they've set it up isn't straightforward so required some experimentation to work out how everything fits together.

I was really hoping to get something to my beta testers by Christmas, as a Christmas present to myself, but there are some obstacles. First is the remaining Gain Capital code. Second is that it's end-of-year holidays for my girlfriend, and third is that my girlfriend doesn't like it when I spend all my time in front of the computer.

So here's the plan: I'm going to get a copy to my beta testers as soon as is possible. Hopefully by the end of the year. They're going to play around with it, try to break it, and send me details of errors. And then, I'm guessing late January (so probably March :-), it will be open to the general public.

Because the automatic trading section is probably the most important to get right (what with it potentially playing around with real money), and because myself and the handful of beta testers I have will not be able to give it a thorough enough working over, I've decided on the following temporary price scheme:

My original prices were free data downloads, US$200 a year for the backtesting, US$30 a month for automatic trading, and US$30 a month for alerts.

But, until I decide that automatic trading is stable enough, anyone who pays the $200 for backtesting will be able to use both the automatic trading and alerts for free. When I decide automatic trading is ready, the prices will go to the originally planned $30 per month. I don't recommend using it for real live trading until then.

In this way, we can get many people using the automatic trading in their demo accounts, and flush out any problems. (Note the plan relies on people who come across errors to actually report those errors).

And here's the first of many times you're going to read something like:

Even when I deem automatic trading "ready", you'd be a fool to let it loose on your live, real-money, trading account straight away.

The highly recommended approach:

1. Create your trading system.


2. Backtest it.
   • If it doesn't backtest well, go back to Step 1.


3. Start automatic trading of your system in your *demo* account.
   • If you come across errors, then send me the details. I'll fix them.
   • If your system is not trading how you expect, then send me the details. I'll try to help you find out why.
   • If your system is not performing as well as it did while backtesting, well, sometimes it happens. Geez, lucky you tested it out on your demo account first...
   • If you have thrown a few different scenarios at automatic trading, such as power outages, internet connection is disconnected then re-connected, the weekend starts and stops, etc, and everything has gone according to plan, and you yourself are personally happy to let this beast loose to play with your hard-earned cash, then, and only then, should you switch it on in your live account.


4. Start automatic trading of your system in your live account. Watch it like a hawk until you feel satisfied you don't need to watch it like a hawk anymore.

This isn't a program to be used for reading email. It's not for typing out a letter to your local Rotary association. It's not for displaying the weather.

This program will potentially buy or sell currency using your money. It is up to *you* to ensure it is going to do it in a way you expect.

You have everything necessary to satisfy yourself before using it in your live account.

By allowing it to trade in your live account with your real money, you are surely agreeing that you have followed the recommended steps, you have thrown a number of challenges (such as stopping the internet connection), and the way Thinking Stuff behaved was how you expected.

If you do not follow the recommended steps then you have only yourself to blame.

If you do not like this theory of "personal responsibility for one's own actions", then do not use the software.

I hope that was clear enough.